Further into the recovery; still defining the New Normal
As we look down the road ahead, we see the prospects for a double-dip recession diminishing. The extension of the Bush-era tax cuts may further stimulate the economy, but we believe that the natural business cycle likely would have avoided a double dip even without that additional stimulus. Instead, we see an economy that appears poised for reacceleration. While nearterm growth rates may be close to long-term averages, and frankly may surprise to the upside, we expect structural issues will keep long-term growth rates below historical averages.
Each year we provide a brief review of the where the economy stands today, along with our expectations for the coming years. Below is a link to our Road Ahead piece and your 2011 checklist.