Jobless Claims (week of 10.29.11) Research Notes

by Jim Baird on November 3, 2011

Jobless claims tick below 400,000; labor market remains challenging

Initial jobless claims fell slightly to 397,000 for the week ended October 29, while the four-week average declined to 404,500.  While there has been slight improvement, the broad trend is still consistent with a lukewarm labor market and provides limited reason for renewed optimism among jobseekers.

Despite rising concerns in recent months about the potential for an impending slowdown in the U.S economy, the jobs market has not yet shown signs of meaningful deterioration.  That’s the good news.  The bad news for jobseekers is that the employment market remains mediocre even in the absence of any currently detectible weakening.

The lack of greater jobs creation remains a significant challenge for policymakers, as evidenced by the unemployment rate itself.  With the exception of a brief two-month dip below 9% early this year, the nation’s jobless rate has been above 9% now for nearly 2-and-a-half years, with little expectation for improvement in the months ahead.

Consumer confidence remains depressed, as jobs remain relatively hard to come by and personal income has been under pressure in recent months.  Until we see meaningful improvement in labor and income conditions, the economy seems likely to remain on a path of mediocrity at best, while the risk of outright recession remains elevated.

The economy as a whole remains in a state of flux, and will likely be very sensitive to external shocks in the months ahead.  Volatility in the capital markets remains heightened, as nervous investors wait for meaningful trends to emerge amidst the uncertainty.  Markets can move sharply in either direction in response to the ebb and flow of both meaningful developments and rumors.  The impact of critical policy decisions both in the U.S. and Europe in particular in the months ahead is likely to be critical in addressing both long-term fiscal issues and the near-term direction of the economy both in the U.S. and globally.

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U.S. jobless claims fall 9000 to 397000

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